I’ve always enjoyed having a few tournament-wide bets for the global events and the latest – the 2024 T20 World Cup – starts on Saturday (June 1).
Without further ado, here’s my look at the top batter, bowler and most sixes markets…
TOP BAT
Suggested bets:
Phil Salt e.w. – 16/1 (William Hill, ¼, 1-4)
Brandon King e.w. – 33/1 (BetVictor, ¼, 1-4)
Kusal Mendis e.w.– 55/1 (BetVictor, ¼, 1-4)
This will be the ninth edition of the T20 World Cup and an opener has finished as the top runscorer in six of the previous eight.
At the other two, Virat Kohli – one of the greatest batters of all time – claimed the prize, batting at number three.
There’s a theory that suggests those further down the order could have more to offer this time around, potentially at a big price. That’s largely based on the Caribbean Premier League seasons which have often seen early wickets fall before innings have been rebuilt.
That said, the last two editions have seen one open win top bat with the other victor batting at three.
What else are we looking for?
Well, seven of the eight previous market winners have reached the semi-finals, at least.
As for the one who didn’t, there was a reason behind the oddity. Back in 2016, Bangladesh’s Tamim Iqbal played in the first group stage (the major nations didn’t), meaning not only did he get to play the same number of matches at the finalists, he also got to play several against weaker opposition.
Making the semis (or final) is slightly less important this year than it has been in previous editions due to the change of format.
The winner of this market will at least need to play in the Super 8s – by doing so they will play in (or rather be eligible to play in) at least seven matches. Those who reach the final will play in nine – 29% more. Last time out in 2022, the finalists played 40% more games.
However, clearly it will be an advantage to make the knockout stage and with India, Australia and England all odds-on to make the last four, it’s worth looking at their openers.
The man who sticks out to me is Phil Salt.
He leads off a powerful English batting line-up, one which will take on Oman, Namibia and Scotland (plus Australia) in the group stage, and he’s in a rich vein of form for his country.
Since the start of 2023, he’s scored 452 runs in just 10 T20Is, with his six-hitting ability fully on show (26 struck).
The runs have been scored quickly too, a strike-rate of just shy of 170 being impressive and, for context, a fraction below that of Virat Kohli, the player who won this market in 2022 and starts favourite this time around.
Crucially, 331 of those runs were scored in the West Indies across five matches in December when Salt cracked two hundreds and hit 22 sixes. Unlike some sides, England will play all their games in the Caribbean and won’t have to venture to the co-host USA.
The other box which can be ticked off with Salt is recent form.
He’s just finished playing at the Indian Premier League where he scored a decent 435 runs in 12 games (including 24 sixes) and he would surely have finished in the top 10 runscorers had he not had to depart early to get home for England’s T20 series with Pakistan.
One final plus for Salt is the grounds he’s likely to play at.
England are already guaranteed two games in Barbados – one of the most historically for runs – while they will get another there if, as they’ll need to, they reach the Super 8s.
Their other two Super 8s matches would take place in St Lucia, another decent ground for runscoring – the average first-innings T20I score there is 160, just two lower than Barbados.
All things considered, Salt looks a touch of value at 16s.
It is value I look for in markets such as these with some of the bigger odds contenders often delivering for the places – remember most firms will pay a quarter of the odds for a spot in the top four of the run charts.
It’s with this in mind I move on to West Indies’ Brandon King.
The hosts may not be one of those odds-on to make the semis but I do fancy them in the outright market, as I’ve outlined in this preview for Kwiff.
The main reason for my confidence is the power in throughout their batting line up – they have players capable of hitting sixes right the way down to number 11.
King will lead them off and will doubtless go hard early.
He’s hit a half-century in four of his last 11 T20Is and enjoyed a strong run-in to this event by scoring 79, 36 and 44 in last week’s series whitewash of South Africa.
Since the start of 2023, King has ‘per match’ average of 27.07 – a figure deliberately used ahead of the usual per wicket one.
That’s good but will need to be bettered if he’s to win this market but there’s every reason to expect more from the Jamaican.
This is a man who has twice finished as top runscorer in the CPL, while last year he was a still creditable fifth in the standings.
Home pitches should certainly be an advantage for a player who loves the cut shot and he looks a runner in this market at 28/1.
My final pick is more left-field, namely Kusal Mendis, of Sri Lanka.
Another opener, Mendis will be key to his side’s chances – their batting isn’t the strongest and they will rely on their bowling attack to get them first into the Super 8s and then beyond.
Neither is guaranteed – and that certainly makes this a risky bet – but that’s built into the price of 50/1.
Mendis, fifth in this market 18 months ago, is a decent six-hitter – 28 in 15 T20Is during my 2023/24 study period – and he’s in the top 10 for most runs since the start of last year.
More significantly, he’s up at fourth when you look at the runs-per-match figures for those players who have scored at least 400 runs in that time. For the record, those above him are Suryakumar Yadav, Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam.
Critics will point out most of his runs have come on the sub-continent, while some have been claimed against weak opposition.
However, pitches in the Caribbean tend to be slow with some turn, while the minnows aspect remains in play here with Sri Lanka due to face Nepal and an under-strength Netherlands.
A small bet on a big player for his nation is the call.
Previous top-bat winners at the T20 World Cup
2022 – Virat Kohli (India, out in semi-finals)
2021 – Babar Azam (Pakistan, semi-finals)
2016 – Tamim Iqbal (Bangladesh, group stage)
2014 – Virat Kohli (India, runners-up)
2012 – Shane Watson (Australia, semi-finals)
2010 – Mahela Jayawardene (Sri Lanka, semi-finals)
2009 – Tillakaratne Dilshan (Sri Lanka, runners-up)
2007 – Matthew Hayden (Australia, semi-finals)
TOP BOWLER
Suggested bets:
Adil Rashid e.w. – 25/1 (various, ¼, 1-4)
Gudakesh Motie e.w. – 40/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, ¼, 1-4)
Wanindu Hasaranga e.w. – 50/1 (various, ¼, 1-4)
Haris Rauf e.w. – 33/1 (various, ¼, 1-4)
So, what are we looking for here?
Well, a spinner has finished as top wicket-taker at the last five T20 World Cups – and there’s a strong view that those who turn the ball will be key to success at this year’s edition.
And five of the eight top wicket-takers have reached at least the semis – the last three haven’t but that can be put down to the format which put the minnows in round one, giving them a three-game start on the big guns.
Step forward Adil Rashid.
England’s first-choice spinner has plenty in his favour.
He looks pretty much nailed on to play in all their games, as he did on the tour of the West Indies in December when he took nine wickets in five T20Is to finish as the series’ top bowler. His economy rate of 6.2 was also outstanding.
He’ll be coming on in those middle overs and so while he’ll miss the chance to get those early wickets which have often come in CPL games, there’s the opportunity to pick up wickets as the middle order look to attack.
As shown by that economy rate, Rashid is capable of creating pressure and while he’s not the first name you think of when asking for a wicket-taking spinner, it’s easy to see how he will still end up taking a few.
Admittedly, it may be a stretch for him to win but I’m very much an each-way punter in these markets and it’s notable that 11 and 12 wickets have been enough for a place in this market at the last two T20 World Cups.
Yes, the format has changed and a handful of bowlers will get an extra match but that still looks a decent yardstick.
Rashid has taken 12 wickets in his last seven T20Is – a repeat of that may well deliver a profit for those backing him at 25/1.
As already explained, I’m keen on the West Indies going all the way so it may also be worth throwing a dart with Gudakesh Motie at 40/1.
He’ll be something of an unknown to many opponents given he’s a relative newcomer at international level and hasn’t been doing the rounds as a franchise freelancer.
After taking 15 wickets to be among the leading wicket-takers at last year’s CPL, Motie’s lead into the event has been wicket-filled.
Motie’s efforts for West Indies’ A team in Nepal (he was the leading wicket-taker on the tour) saw him start all three games against South Africa last week and he ended up taking eight wickets in that series.
Two more followed in a warm-up game against Australia and if his form continues on pitches conducive to spin across the Caribbean, then he should contend.
The other spinner I like at the price is Sri Lanka’s Wanindu Hasaranga.
I’ll repeat my slight concern about the possibility of the islanders crashing out early but that helps explain the price of 50/1.
Hasaranga has won this market at the last two World Cups but the difference this time is he’s not got a group stage against minnows in which to build an early lead.
A career average of 1.6 wickets per game pushed out across seven games (which Sri Lanka are guaranteed if they reach the Super 8s) gives us a figure of 11.2 and while Hasaranga hasn’t quite hit those standards since the start of 2023, he still looks a runner in this market.
The all-rounder is another key man for Sri Lanka – he’ll be asked to do damage with the bat as well as the ball – and will know he needs to deliver.
Like many, his experience of the West Indies is limited but eight wickets in three T20Is in the region is a nice thing to have on the CV.
He’s worth a go at the price.
Finally, I don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket so from the pacemen, I’m siding with Haris Rauf.
Pakistan have long been a hit-and-miss side but in Rauf and Shaheen Afridi, they have two quicks who are very capable of taking wickets and thus getting their side into games.
Recently recalled after a miserable 2023 World Cup and a fallout with the hierarchy, Rauf has taken 23 wickets in 11 T20Is since the start of last year.
No other player has taken wickets at an average of 2 per game in that study period.
A player with excellent raw pace, Rauf can be used at the various stages of an innings, albeit he’s tended not to open the bowling of late.
Whenever he bowls, he usually gets his full complement of four overs which, if continued, obviously gives his backers a better chance than many of collecting wickets.
Pakistan made it all the way to the final of the last T20 World Cup and while a repeat is probably unlikely, it shouldn’t be ruled out.
Previous top wicket-takers at the T20 World Cup
2022 – Wanindu Hasaranga (SL), 15 wickets in 8 matches (group stage)
2021 – Wanindu Hasaranga (SL), 16 wickets in 8 matches (group stage)
2016 – Mohammad Nabi (AFG), 12 wickets in 7 matches (group stage)
2014 – Imran Tahir (SA), 12 wickets in 5 matches (semi-finals) & Ahsan Mailk (NED), 12 wickets in 7 matches (group stage)
2012 – Ajantha Mendis (SL), 15 wickets in 6 matches (runners-up)
2010 – Dirk Nannes (AUS), 14 wickets in 7 matches (runners-up)
2009 – Umar Gul (PAK), 13 wickets in 7 matches (winners)
2007 – Umar Gul (PAK), 13 wickets in 7 matches (runners-up)
MOST SIXES
Suggested bets:
Suryakumar Yadav – 10/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Rovman Powell e.w. – 28/1 (Sky Bet, ¼, 1-4)
There are few more destructive batsmen in world cricket than Suryakumar Yadav at present and he looks a good bet to hit the most sixes at the T20 World Cup.
Across his career as a whole, he’s averaging 2.05 sixes per game in the T20I format and if you filter than down to the study period I’ve used – since the start of 2023 – it rises to 2.39.
He arrives here off a strong IPL campaign in which he struck 18 sixes in 11 games.
In terms of total runs, he’s second in the list over the study period and has a hugely-impressive runs-per-game average of 40.7, undoubtedly helped by a run of five half-cenutires in his last 10 matches (including one in Lauderhill, Florida, and one in Guyana, both grounds at this tournament).
Yadav had the top strike-rate at the 2022 tournament, another sign of how he likes to press on quickly.
The fact he’s going to come in at number four will be a problem for some but it does feed into the theory that those lower down the order will have a big part to play in the Caribbean.
Nicolas Pooran is the other obvious pick from the top of the market – he’s been in excellent form in warm-up games and the IPL – but the West Indies’ batting line up is packed full of players capable of clearing the ropes so it may pay to side with someone at a much bigger prices.
Captain Rovman Powell probably isn’t the most obvious name but he’ll swing the bat when he comes in at four or five and recent history suggests sixes will follow.
He’s smashed 32 in 16 T20Is since the start of 2023 and is very much in-tune with the modern-day version of T20.
The co-hosts don’t look the sort of team who are going to end up on 190 for two or three – they will take risks and go big from the outset – so Powell seems likely to get regular chances.
The skipper has made it past 30 in seven of his last 15 matches at this level and sixes have been a big part of those efforts – in nine of the games he’s hit multiple sixes.
There’s certainly plenty of each-way potential in backing Powell at 28/1.