Mark Noble did the business for this column last week, producing a 3/1 winner by collecting his 10th career card in 19 games against Tottenham – a stat to remember that one.
This week I’m again sticking with two anytime card bets, both at a tasty 4/1.
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Aron Gunnarsson – Liverpool v Cardiff – 4/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet, 888Sport)
Having finally shaken off a knee injury, Gunnarsson played his first game of the season last week against Fulham – and was duly booked. Having played just 77 minutes since the World Cup, he’s sure to still be a bit rusty here and Anfield is not a venue where you want to be operating at anything less than 100 per cent.
Given the pace and attacking verve in the Liverpool ranks, the shielding midfielder is likely to be in for a busy afternoon, particularly if stubborn boss Neil Warnock refuses to change his ways. Let’s remember what he said prior to last month’s 4-1 loss at Chelsea.
“If you shut shop at Stamford Bridge you’re going to get picked off and lose by two or three anyway. So you may as well have a go, you just have to hope you don’t leave yourself wide open to a pasting.”
Cardiff also tried to play fairly open against Manchester City – and lost 5-0. It’s not hard to see something similar unfolding here, especially after Cardiff won 4-2 last week and so may well arrive thinking they are now able to compete in the Premier League.
If so, Gunnarsson could be left far too exposed, almost needing to commit fouls. With a ref more than happy to go to his pocket (see below), 4/1 about Gunnarsson receiving a card looks the best bet this week.
Referee: Stuart Attwell – Leads the league stats for cards per game – he’s operating at 4.5 yellows in each match so far. That’s high, although it was always to be expected he’d go to his pocket often – Attwell averaged 3.6 over the 2017/18 season, the fourth highest of those officials who took charge of more than one match. In short, a good ref to have if you are looking for cards to be shown.
Etienne Capoue – Watford v Huddersfield – 4/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Watford have played five home games so far and Capoue has been booked in four of them. With a strict ref in charge, there looks every chance the defensive midfielder collects another and 4/1 is a decent price that he does.
Only five players have attempted more tackles than Capoue this season, while he’s also in the top 20 for fouls conceded.
Winless Huddersfield know they are very much in a relegation scrap and while quality is clearly lacking, they’ve been able to at least stay competitive thanks to a hard work ethic and the likes of Aaron Mooy and Philip Billing should ensure the midfield battle is a tough one. I’d expect a few cards, especially given who’s in charge (see below).
Watford will likely have more of the ball than in previous home games but that fact is more than built into the price here.
Referee: Mike Dean – Frankly a Godsend for cards backers – he’s averaging 4.29 yellows a game this season (only Stuart Attwell’s figure is higher) and has also flashed three reds already. Again, that’s part of a long-term trend with Dean’s average of 3.72 last season being the highest of Premier League officials who took charge of multiple matches. A proper disciplinarian, who is known to book persistent foulers.