Just the one winner from four bets last week – Jefferson Lerma being carded in Bournemouth v Crystal Palace.
He was put up at 11/5 in this column but come matchday the Colombian was offered at 9/2 and Betfred were left regretting that decision when he collected a late booking.
The bookies are getting more clued up about Lerma’s ability to attract referees’ attention so he’s passed over this week but I’ve got six suggestions in all, including three in the big Liverpool v Man City clash and a 9/1 shot on Saturday’s programme.
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Over 4 on Asian total cards line – Liverpool v Manchester City (Sun 1600 BST) – 1.925 (bet365)
These two sides may be in the bottom three in terms of cards collected but I’m not letting that me put that off backing ‘overs’ on Sunday at Anfield. For me, this is a rivalry which already has echoes of Liverpool and Chelsea in the mid-Noughties when the pair met regularly in big games both domestically and in European competition and there was plenty of bad blood. That’s already brewing here after the reception Liverpool fans had for City’s team bus on their last visit, an issue very much raised ahead of this game, one which has to be considered the biggest of the Premier League campaign so far – the two sides go into it locked together on 19 points with only City’s superior goal difference separating them. The winner, if indeed there is one, will be only three points ahead with 30 games to play but they will claim a psychological advantage, of that there can be little doubt. Recent history suggests a hard-fought battle – and, with it, cards. Since Pep Guardiola arrived at the Etihad Stadium, the pair have met six times. The card counts have been (most recent first): 6-5-5-6-6-3. This is based on the widely-accepted rule that a straight red card is worth 2 points and a two-yellow sending off, 3. Those are pretty high numbers and certainly well above the over/under mark set for this renewal. With a ref happy to dish them out (see below), cards look likely and the best way to go is on the Asian line. Over 4 is a touch bigger than 10/11 – as you can see it has landed in the last five meetings. If there are only four cards, stakes are returned. I think this is better than over 3.5 cards at 8/13 with the same firm or 3/5 with others.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – Has a long-established reputation as a disciplinarian and that’s reflected in his figures. Of refs who took charge of multiple games, Atkinson was the third strictest last season, issuing 3.64 yellows per game on average. So far this term he’s close to that mark at 3.57.
Anytime card
Nicolas Otamendi – Liverpool v Manchester City (Sun 1630) – 11/4 (bet365, Sky Bet)
With the case for cards set out above, I’m also looking for some anytime card bets in Sunday’s showdown. Otamendi has not been booked in his three Premier League starts this season but last term he picked up nine cards in 34 games. It’s worth noting against which sides he was booked too. Of those nine, six came against members of the ‘Big Six’ – Liverpool (twice), Arsenal (twice), Chelsea and Spurs. This will be his first game against a ‘Big Six’ team in 2018/19, his matches so far having been against Fulham, Cardiff and Brighton, all of whom have offered little threat to City (none found the net). It’s easy to suggest Otamendi will be a touch busier this weekend – when he was against Hoffenheim in midweek he was duly booked – and 11/4 that he picks up another card looks decent. His record for Guardiola’s City against Liverpool suggests so too – in the six games he’s played against the Reds under Pep he’s been carded on four occasions. He’s 11/10 elsewhere. Someone’s wrong and I think I know who.
Referee: Martin Atkinson (see above)
Raheem Sterling – Liverpool v Manchester City (Sun 1630) – 6/1 (bet365, Betway)
The other player whose price stands out in the anytime card market is former Liverpool man Sterling. He really appeared to be affected by facing his former employers last season. The sides played each other four times, Sterling was banned from the first, played so poorly in the second that he was dropped to the bench for the third and then returned to the team for the fourth. In two of his three appearances he was booked. The Liverpool fans will be right on his back from the kick-off at Anfield once again and I would not be at all surprised to see Sterling cut a frustrated figure again and a frustrated Sterling can easily find his way into the book.
Referee: Martin Atkinson (see above)
Johann Berg Gudmundsson – Burnley v Huddersfield (Sat 1500) – 9/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Burnley may have won their last two Premier League games but this still has the look of a real ‘six-pointer’ about it. Certainly Huddersfield are getting desperate for a win (they remain on two points) and I envisage a real battle with goals at a premium and each side looking to assert physical superiority on the other. Gudmundsson doesn’t immediately fit the profile of someone who will be key in any such battle but the Icelandic star has been booked three times in 12 games this season. He also saw yellow in this fixture last term. Only three teams have collected more cautions than Burnley so far in 2018/19, while only West Ham have attempted more tackles than Huddersfield. I can see Gudmundsson getting some close attention here and while he’s likely to be up against left-back Chris Loewe, the Burnley man is not a wide player who sticks rigorously to the touchline. He’ll drift into many other areas, thus putting himself up against those with poorer discipline such as Chris Schindler and Mathias Jorgensen. That will bring retaliation into the picture, adding to the chances of a card. It’s definitely a long shot but 9/1 is a price which is tempting enough for a small-stakes play.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh – Is delivering cards below his 2017/18 average but last season’s 3.53 yellows per game was very much towards to the top of that particular table.
Lucas Torreira – Fulham v Arsenal (Sun 1200) – 9/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
This will be only Torreira’s third Premier League start and he’s been booked on his first two. It’s fair to say the Uruguayan is still settling in to English football and what he finds in Sunday’s London derby at Craven Cottage may come as something of a surprise. It’s a fixture which hasn’t been played for a few years but the most recent meetings have always been a bit tasty with four red cards shown in the last four, and five in the last seven. Torreira’s card stats at previous club Sampdoria are encouraging – six yellows in 36 games last season, seven in 35 the year before and six (and one red) in 26 appearances in his first Serie A campaign. As a defensive shield, he’ll be making plenty of challenges and 9/2 about another card looks a tad large.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Admittedly Tierney was one of the refs you didn’t want in charge last season if you were looking for cards but he’s shown 3.5 a game so far this season which is above average.
Oriol Romeu – Southampton v Chelsea (Sun 1415) – 9/4 (bet365)
Sadly the cat is long out of the bag with Romeu, who was booked a league-high 11 times last season in 34 games. So far this term, he’s been carded on two of his three starts. That helps explain why he’s no bigger than 9/4. However, what makes that price value for me is the fact that he’s been booked in four of his seven matches against Chelsea. There are two good explanations for this. First he’s a former Chelsea player, one who will feel he didn’t get a fair crack of the whip at Stamford Bridge. He’ll be out to prove a point when they meet. Secondly, Chelsea’s break-at-pace style, personified by the red-hot Eden Hazard, can often see a defensive midfielder, such as Romeu, exposed. You’ll need to wait to see the team – Romeu was dropped to the bench for last week’s defeat at Wolves – but if he starts and 9/4 (or more) is still there, then it is probably worth taking.
Referee: Craig Pawson – Averaged 3.38 yellows per game last season, just above average, but he’s raised that close to 4 so far this term. The Yorkshire official has also sent off three players already, the most in the league.